2018年4月26日 星期四

美國2018年4月消費者信心指數

美國2018年4月消費者信心指數上升至128.7,上個月為127.0。

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Increased in April
24 Apr. 2018

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in April, following a decline in March. The Index now stands at 128.7 (1985=100), up from 127.0 in March. The Present Situation Index increased from 158.1 to 159.6, while the Expectations Index improved from 106.2 last month to 108.1 this month.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was April 12.

“Consumer confidence increased moderately in April after a decline in March,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved somewhat, with consumers rating both business and labor market conditions quite favorably. Consumers’ short-term expectations also improved, with the percent of consumers expecting their incomes to decline over the coming months reaching its lowest level since December 2000 (6.0 percent). Overall, confidence levels remain strong and suggest that the economy will continue expanding at a solid pace in the months ahead.”

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions improved modestly in April. The percentage saying business conditions are “good” decreased from 37.6 percent to 35.2 percent, however those claiming business conditions are “bad” also decreased, from 13.3 percent to 11.3 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also mixed. The percentage of consumers claiming jobs are “plentiful” declined from 39.5 percent to 38.1 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” also declined, from 15.7 percent to 15.2 percent.

Consumers were moderately more positive about the short-term outlook in April. The percentage of consumers anticipating business conditions will improve over the next six months increased from 23.2 percent to 24.5 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen decreased from 10.2 percent to 9.7 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also more positive. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 18.9 percent to 19.5 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs remained at 12.5 percent. Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement was virtually unchanged at 23.1 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease declined from 7.2 percent to 6.8 percent.

下面是google的網頁翻譯:
隨著3月份的下降,諮商會消費者信心指數®在4月份有所上升。該指數目前為128.7(1985年= 100),高於3月份的127.0。現狀指數從158.1上漲至159.6,而預期指數從上月的106.2上升至本月的108.1。

Nielsen是全球領先的信息和分析供應商,圍繞消費者購買和觀看的數據,為概念設計隨機抽樣的每月消費者信心調查(Consumer ConfidenceSurvey®)進行。初步結果的截止日期是4月12日。

該會議委員會經濟指標總監Lynn Franco表示:「4月份消費者信心在4月份下降後溫和上漲。 消費者對當前狀況的評估有所改善,消費者對商業和勞動力市場狀況的評估相當有利。消費者的短期預期也有所改善,消費者預計未來幾個月的收入將下降至2000年12月以來的最低水平(6.0%)。總體而言,信心水平依然強勁,表明未來幾個月經濟將繼續保持穩健增長。」

4月份消費者對當前狀況的評估略有改善。商業條件「好」的百分比從37.6%下降到35.2%,但聲稱經營狀況「不好」的百分比也從13.3%下降到11.3%。消費者對勞動力市場的評估參差不齊。聲稱工作「消費」的消費者比例從39.5%下降到38.1%,而聲稱工作「難以獲得」的消費者也從15.7%下降到15.2%。

消費者對4月份的短期前景持肯定態度。預計未來六個月商業環境的消費者比例將從23.2%提高到24.5%,而預期商業環境的消費者將從10.2%下降到9.7%。

消費者對勞動力市場的看法也更積極。預計未來幾個月就業崗位增加的比例從18.9%上升到19.5%,而那些預期就業機會減少的比例仍然為12.5%。關於他們的短期收入前景,預計改善的消費者百分比實際上保持不變,為23.1%,而預期下降的比例則從7.2%下降到6.8%。

※有關指數說明和資料取得請參考:重要的景氣周期指標(看準市場脈動投機術)的那篇文章說明。